That was a trifecta that begged for a blog.
"The Bayesian approach toward thinking...encourages us to hold a large number of hypotheses in our head at once, to think about them probabilistically, and to update them frequently when we come across new information that might be more or less consistent with them."
Armed with a list of as many possible factors/scenarios that could have contributed to the outcome allows you to “stop and smell the data” which, Silver says, leads to better decision making - the reason you’re doing the deep dive in the first place.
As Silver notes, “most of the time, we do not appreciate how noisy the data is, and so our bias is to place too much weight on the newest data point.”
- Committing the time it takes to do a deep dive
- Creating multiple theories about what might have driven the results and a corresponding checklist of data to examine
- Evaluating and providing context for all the data relevant to your theories
- Review the process with an eye toward self-improvement