Formats with the Most Momentum Entering 2017: Questions to Ask As You Survey the Competitive Landscape

Towards the end of each year, Nielsen releases its Top Audio Trends report which lists the 10 leading formats in terms of share for the past January through November in PPM markets.  There are separate rankings for 6+, 18-34 and 25-54.

In 2016 News-Talk led in 6+ with CHR winning 18-34 and 25-54. Country and CHR were the only formats to rank in the top three in each demo.

Here are last year’s top three formats.

6+	18-34	25-54
News/Talk	CHR	CHR
CHR	Country	Country
AC	Hot AC	AC

Breaking out the formats by demo, it’s tempting to cite the election as driving News/Talk’s position. However, while this year’s 6+ shares were notably higher, the format has been the top 6+ format in each of the last four years.

Of all formats that have been in the top 10 over this time, the format with the greatest 6+ growth since 2013 is Hot AC (+0.9) with Classic Rock a close second (+0.8) and Sports (+0.4).

6+	2013	2014	2015	2016
N/T	9.3	8.8	8.9	9.6
CHR	8.2	8.3	8.2	8.1
AC	7.7	7.1	7.4	7.5
Country	7.8	8.2	7.9	7.4
Hot AC	5.5	6.2	6.7	6.4
Classic Hits	5.3	5.2	5.3	5.3
Classic Rock	4.3	4.7	5.2	5.1
Urban AC	5.0	4.9	4.9	4.8
Sports	4.3	4.4	4.7	4.7
Urban Contemp			3.5	3.7
Mex Regional	3.9	3.7		3.7

Among 18-34s, Urban Contemporary saw the largest growth since 2013 (+1.3) and has added shares each year. Hot AC also had strong growth 18-34 (+1.2) followed by Classic Rock (+0.9).

18-34	2013	2014	2015	2016
CHR	12.4	12.3	12.4	12.2
Country	9.1	9.8	9.1	8.6
Hot AC	6.1	7.1	7.6	7.3
Urban Contemp	5.3	5.8	6.5	6.6
AC	6.3	5.9	6.4	6.5
Rhythmic CHR	7.3	6.7	5.8	5.1
Alt	5	5	5	5
Mex Regional	5.6	5.2	4.6	5
Classic Rock	3.6	3.9	4.5	4.5
NT	3.7	3.5	3.6	4.1

Among 25-54s, Hot AC is the growth leader (+0.9) with Classic Rock next (0.7) and Sports third (+0.4).

25-54	2013	2014	2015	2016
CHR	8.7	9	9	8.8
Country	7.5	8	7.8	7.3
AC	7.5	6.9	7.2	7.1
Hot AC	6.1	6.8	7.2	7.0
NT	6.8	6.2	6.2	6.9
Classic Rock	4.7	5.3	5.7	5.4
Sports	4.9	5	5.2	5.3
Classic Hits	4.6	4.5	4.5	4.7
Urban AC	6.1	4.8	4.8	4.6
Mex Regional	4.7	4.6	4.1	4.5

Over the four year period, Hot AC and Classic Rock were the two formats registering the largest gains in all demos.

Across the same time period, Country was off half a share or less in each demo (-0.4, -0.5 and -0.2). However the declines since the format’s highs in 2014 are steeper: -0.8, -0.8 and -0.7.

Shares differ in the diary universe. This trended 12+ format information is available only to diary subscribers via Nielsen’s Audio Today Appendix.

Regardless of the methodology, these questions are worth considering as we start a New Year:

1. What are the major trends in my market (station trends, demo shifts, market AQH, etc.)?
2. What are key factors driving these trends for my format as well as my competitors’?
3. What should my station’s responses be to each of these factors?

As we start the New Year, a quick look back can be a useful tool in moving forward.

^{Photo Copyright: convisum / 123RF Stock Photo}

Why 5 More Inductees Into the Country Radio Hall of Fame Matters

2015 Country Radio Hall of Fame Inductees
Photo courtesy of Kristen Englund

Honoring excellence is always a good idea.

That happened again last week in Nashville when the Country Radio Broadcasters inducted five new members into the Country Radio Hall of Fame (left to right: Randy Carroll, Mike Kennedy, Karen Dalessandro, Joel Raab, and Sammy George).

Each year, the Hall recognizes individuals who have a 20 year history (including at least 15 in the country format) of making “significant contributions to the radio industry.” 

Halls of Fame of course run the gamut from the famous (like the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum to the infamous (the now defunct Cockroach Hall of Fame which was in Plano, TX). Your degree of interest in a Hall’s subject matter no doubt plays a huge role in what you get out of your visit. 

For things you’re passionate about, a Hall of Fame is more than an historical record or a repository of memorabilia; the strength of a Hall is the inspiring accomplishments of those who are enshrined.

At the very least, the Country Radio Hall of Fame is a reminder that excellence matters and is still acknowledged and celebrated.  At its best, the Hall and inductees inspire us all to make a daily, “significant contribution to the radio industry.” 

If we’re talent we strive for excellence every break, every show. If we’re managers and program directors we seek to coach each person to their full potential. By example, we encourage each other to believe in ourselves and aspire to be the best we can be.

If you’re passionate about what you do and want to inspire others, Bain & Company has these suggestions:

• Discover and cultivate individual skills
• Excel at a few of your distinguishing strengths rather than attempting to be excellent at everything
• Recognize that inspirational leaders can be anywhere in an organizational hierarchy
• Improve your effectiveness at inspiring others with repetition and experimentation

If you want to show your passion, be your best, and inspire others to do the same, the good news is you don’t wait to be inducted into a Hall of Fame to begin.

Taking a Bite out of a Market Leader: What a Sandwich Chain Can Teach Us

Taking a bite out of a market leader

Shifts in listener and consumer loyalty happen all the time but they always seem newsworthy when “suddenly” a top performer is dethroned.

In reality, many of these abrupt declines may have actually been months, years, or even decades in the making. 

Some of these are the end result of one or more competitors' long and persistent “creep” against a leader, or a leader being too static for too long in a changing marketplace ('slow to react' was one of the points in a recent Washington Post article on Subway that inspired this blog).

Format and market leading stations must continually negotiate the tripwires that can give toe holds or growth opportunities to competitors.

• Commoditization stemming from a growing lack of differentiation in the listener’s POV; that is, listeners don't perceive a sufficient number of particularly unique and important-to-them benefits gained by listening to your station vs. a competitor
• Listeners believe the "listening cost" of your station exceeds its value
• Failure to accurately assess a challenger’s strength or appeal in a timely manner
• A delayed response or inability to adequately respond to "Values Drift;" listener values/standards have evolved but the leader has remained static 
• Time pressures have severely limited creative and/or forward thinking
• The status quo remains status quo for too long;  new services, features, products, or offerings are minimal, or there’s a lack of excitement about initiatives that are launched
• Lack of employee passion for the station, format, listeners or even self
• Eroding relationships with listeners for any of the above reasons

These are rarely intentional over-sights. I haven't walked into a station recently and found GMs, OMs and PDs looking for ways to keep busy. Finding time to just think is a challenge.

Still, in the spirit of ipsa scientia potestas est ("knowledge itself is power"), consider regularly scheduling a meeting of station creatives to talk through these (and other) bullets, share listener Intel, and have a "what if..." discussion.


Do it over a sandwich if you like.

Keep Summer Listeners Coming Back: 5 Retail Tactics For Your Station

“Summer vacation" - who doesn't think that sounds like a good idea?

Just don’t start too soon if you’re in radio - and especially if you're in Country Radio. 

Last week, Inside Radio featured this graphic from Nielsen as part of an article on Memorial Day weekend format flips. It shows the noticeably heaver 6+ May and June radio listening trends for the past four years.

I asked Nielsen’s Tony Hereau how Country compared and he shared the following.

While radio’s average 6+ AQH Persons starts a decline after May, Country’s best 25-54 months begin after May peaking in June, July, August and September (again, note the chart above is based on 6+ while the chart below is based on 25-54).  

A retailer eyeing these charts would likely think about how to convert these seasonal increases into year-round customers.

Taking a page from their playbook, here are five retail tactics and their radio equivalents your station can launch regardless of format.

Retail	Radio
Lower purchase barriers making it easy to buy	Be present on as many platforms as possible.  Be minimalistic in terms of time, effort and information you require of listeners who want to engage in your contests or sign up for your database.
Provide superior value	Insure your Entertainment Value always exceeds your Cost of Listening (EV>CL). The EV is nearly all-encompassing: from talent to music to promotions and more. Meanwhile the CL goes beyond commercial load.
Up-selling and cross-selling	Use compelling teases and promote-aheads to drive additional occasions of listening. Be visible and high-touch so you can ask for more listening in person.
Providing “Social Proof” that demonstrates shared values and behavioral reinforcement	Create believable “peer endorsement” in social media and imaging
Finding ways to say “thank you”	Appreciation is powerful in driving repeat usage and WOM.

This fall, don't just talk about what you did on your summer vacation, brag about what you did before it.

Country Too Pop? Too Rock? Listeners on Living in Harmony

We’ve all read it or heard it by now – the CJJR-FM interview where Zac Brown called Luke Bryan’s current single, “the worst song I’ve ever heard” and that some songs on country radio make him “ashamed to even be in the same genre.”

Well, at least we know where he stands.

And of course he’s not the first to bemoan the state of country music over the years.

I speak to hundreds of country radio listeners while conducting Listener Panels for stations, and we always speak in depth about the music.

These fans are quick to list the big stars, the up-and-comers, and those who they’ve grown tired of.

Luke and his music have fared extremely well, as have most of the millennial artists. There’s great passion for our music – all the genres.

Still, in nearly every group, there is some admonishment to “keep the music country.”

While no panelist has threatened to “throw up” if they hear another song referencing trucks or tailgates, listeners have some concerns over country music becoming “too pop.” They express concerns about rock too but, anecdotally, that seems to come up less frequently.

Country radio has always been able to successfully expose a number of different styles simultaneously.  And we can see great testing as well as sales across these genres – and for the past few years, strong ratings.

But we enter the danger zone is when too much of any one style (be it pop or rock, tempo or texture) dominates.  That’s especially true if too much of the material we’re trying to manage lives at the edges.

Today, the job of balancing each quarter hour of music is both increasingly challenging and of critical importance.  

Review your library coding for relevance at least every six months. Our music is constantly changing and our rules and coding need to help us manage the ebb and flow of the imbalance du jour.

Consider balance when making adds. What theme/style/genre do you have too much or too little of? It best add may or may not be "chart obvious."

Find time to do critical listening to your station, paying particular attention to balance. 

It’s rarely about any one song.  As one listener put it recently, “We like it all. We just want you to mix it up.”

Or, as my partner Jaye Albright blogged, "(the) diversity of sound, borrowing generously from what's "hot" and adapting fresh ideas are the very things that keeps country growing. It's regrettable when any of us who understand the business disparages artists, songs, radio stations or record companies. A bit of the mud, when that happens, splashes on all of us."

Before And After Pictures: Country's Musical Landscape In 2009 and Now

“Before and after” pictures can sometimes be startling. Especially when something that was iconic has changed dramatically, is no longer present or when something new “suddenly” appears.

Because we’re paying attention to our formats on a daily basis and appropriately navigating our stations through changes, good programmers aren't generally subject to before-and-after-shock.

Even so, side-by-sides of the past and present can be both interesting and useful in giving us a perspective on the pace of change.

Here’s a “before and after” look at Mediabase’s Top 10 Most Played Artists (all stations) for the year 2009 and just 3 ½ years later the most played artists to date in 2013. Only three artists - Kenny, Tim and Brad – appear in both snapshots. Seven artists from 2009 have been replaced by seven different artists so far this year.

2009	Artist	Spins		2013	Artist	Spins
1	KENNY CHESNEY	1093702		1	CHESNEY, KENNY	529588
2	TOBY KEITH	1043185		2	SHELTON, BLAKE	481823
3	TIM MCGRAW	882167		3	ALDEAN, JASON	481657
4	GEORGE STRAIT	847920		4	PAISLEY, BRAD	458663
5	BRAD PAISLEY	846708		5	UNDERWOOD, CARRIE	426473
6	RASCAL FLATTS	835130		6	BROWN, ZAC BAND	404099
7	KEITH URBAN	825170		7	MCGRAW, TIM	381991
8	ALAN JACKSON	750887		8	BRYAN, LUKE	359250
9	TAYLOR SWIFT	636428		9	LADY ANTEBELLUM	345478
10	BROOKS & DUNN	625323		10	LAMBERT, MIRANDA	331575

If we pull the lens back a bit to look at the Top 20 most played artists over the same time period, we can see more consistency in names but a number of rankings are significantly different and  there’s quite a bit of churn at the bottom of both lists.

2009	Artist	Spins		2013	Artist	Spins
1	KENNY CHESNEY	1093702		1	CHESNEY, KENNY	529588
2	TOBY KEITH	1043185		2	SHELTON, BLAKE	481823
3	TIM MCGRAW	882167		3	ALDEAN, JASON	481657
4	GEORGE STRAIT	847920		4	PAISLEY, BRAD	458663
5	BRAD PAISLEY	846708		5	UNDERWOOD, CARRIE	426473
6	RASCAL FLATTS	835130		6	BROWN, ZAC BAND	404099
7	KEITH URBAN	825170		7	MCGRAW, TIM	381991
8	ALAN JACKSON	750887		8	BRYAN, LUKE	359250
9	TAYLOR SWIFT	636428		9	LADY ANTEBELLUM	345478
10	BROOKS & DUNN	625323		10	LAMBERT, MIRANDA	331575
11	DIERKS BENTLEY	606851		11	URBAN, KEITH	327423
12	MONTGOMERY GENTRY	570204		12	THE BAND PERRY	326189
13	CARRIE UNDERWOOD	560249		13	STRAIT, GEORGE	310322
14	SUGARLAND	526223		14	KEITH, TOBY	306397
15	DARIUS RUCKER	511694		15	BENTLEY, DIERKS	299723
16	JASON ALDEAN	499024		16	RASCAL FLATTS	280816
17	ZAC BROWN BAND	474769		17	BRICE, LEE	279473
18	BILLY CURRINGTON	458349		18	CHURCH, ERIC	277111
19	GARTH BROOKS	447462		19	FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE	276032
20	RODNEY ATKINS	444324		20	HAYES, HUNTER	271619

A look at album sales yields a similar picture; fully half of the artists making up this year’s top 10 selling albums (Florida Georgia Line, Luke Bryan, The Band Perry, Hunter Hayes and Little Big Town) weren’t in the top 25 for the year 2009.

Again, this is not particularly surprising. Back in February at CRS, A&O&B reported that listeners claimed to have '"discovered" four of these five acts within the past 12 months (Florida Georgia Line being the exception). 

As a "before and after" side note, not too long ago, stations’ “Core/Key Artists” lists often numbered somewhere between 6 and 9.  For many stations today that list is 50% longer.  And that’s a good thing for the format.

None of this should be surprising of course, and that’s the point.

“Before and after” is fun and makes for an interesting look at the speed with which things change (or don't change). But staying on top of listener trends is a far better way to be relevant.

A&O&B provides clients free, ongoing opportunities to keep up with their listeners’ preferences and attitudes with online music surveys including twice-monthly testing of currents, and quarterly testing of gold titles; plus, our annual online Roadmap survey which reports listener behavior and perceptions on a large number of topics. Learn more here and at aandoandb.com.