Formats with the Most Momentum Entering 2017: Questions to Ask As You Survey the Competitive Landscape

Towards the end of each year, Nielsen releases its Top Audio Trends report which lists the 10 leading formats in terms of share for the past January through November in PPM markets.  There are separate rankings for 6+, 18-34 and 25-54.

In 2016 News-Talk led in 6+ with CHR winning 18-34 and 25-54. Country and CHR were the only formats to rank in the top three in each demo.

Here are last year’s top three formats.

6+	18-34	25-54
News/Talk	CHR	CHR
CHR	Country	Country
AC	Hot AC	AC

Breaking out the formats by demo, it’s tempting to cite the election as driving News/Talk’s position. However, while this year’s 6+ shares were notably higher, the format has been the top 6+ format in each of the last four years.

Of all formats that have been in the top 10 over this time, the format with the greatest 6+ growth since 2013 is Hot AC (+0.9) with Classic Rock a close second (+0.8) and Sports (+0.4).

6+	2013	2014	2015	2016
N/T	9.3	8.8	8.9	9.6
CHR	8.2	8.3	8.2	8.1
AC	7.7	7.1	7.4	7.5
Country	7.8	8.2	7.9	7.4
Hot AC	5.5	6.2	6.7	6.4
Classic Hits	5.3	5.2	5.3	5.3
Classic Rock	4.3	4.7	5.2	5.1
Urban AC	5.0	4.9	4.9	4.8
Sports	4.3	4.4	4.7	4.7
Urban Contemp			3.5	3.7
Mex Regional	3.9	3.7		3.7

Among 18-34s, Urban Contemporary saw the largest growth since 2013 (+1.3) and has added shares each year. Hot AC also had strong growth 18-34 (+1.2) followed by Classic Rock (+0.9).

18-34	2013	2014	2015	2016
CHR	12.4	12.3	12.4	12.2
Country	9.1	9.8	9.1	8.6
Hot AC	6.1	7.1	7.6	7.3
Urban Contemp	5.3	5.8	6.5	6.6
AC	6.3	5.9	6.4	6.5
Rhythmic CHR	7.3	6.7	5.8	5.1
Alt	5	5	5	5
Mex Regional	5.6	5.2	4.6	5
Classic Rock	3.6	3.9	4.5	4.5
NT	3.7	3.5	3.6	4.1

Among 25-54s, Hot AC is the growth leader (+0.9) with Classic Rock next (0.7) and Sports third (+0.4).

25-54	2013	2014	2015	2016
CHR	8.7	9	9	8.8
Country	7.5	8	7.8	7.3
AC	7.5	6.9	7.2	7.1
Hot AC	6.1	6.8	7.2	7.0
NT	6.8	6.2	6.2	6.9
Classic Rock	4.7	5.3	5.7	5.4
Sports	4.9	5	5.2	5.3
Classic Hits	4.6	4.5	4.5	4.7
Urban AC	6.1	4.8	4.8	4.6
Mex Regional	4.7	4.6	4.1	4.5

Over the four year period, Hot AC and Classic Rock were the two formats registering the largest gains in all demos.

Across the same time period, Country was off half a share or less in each demo (-0.4, -0.5 and -0.2). However the declines since the format’s highs in 2014 are steeper: -0.8, -0.8 and -0.7.

Shares differ in the diary universe. This trended 12+ format information is available only to diary subscribers via Nielsen’s Audio Today Appendix.

Regardless of the methodology, these questions are worth considering as we start a New Year:

1. What are the major trends in my market (station trends, demo shifts, market AQH, etc.)?
2. What are key factors driving these trends for my format as well as my competitors’?
3. What should my station’s responses be to each of these factors?

As we start the New Year, a quick look back can be a useful tool in moving forward.

^{Photo Copyright: convisum / 123RF Stock Photo}

Country Format's 2015 Holiday Book: Nightmare On Elf Street

Last year country radio got a giant lump of coal in its Holiday Book stocking thanks in no small part to all-Holiday playlists.

Here’s how Nielsen trended the 6+ November-Holiday book change-in-shares for the past four years. 

This includes 2015's record 6+ and 18-34 shares for AC (12.9 and 11.5 respectively) as well as a 4-year tie for highest shares 25-54 (12.1).

According to Nielsen Audio's holiday music/radio report from this week, it's no surprise that for AC...

…holiday music significantly increases the share of listening for the format. Between the November and Holiday survey periods from 2012 to 2015, AC stations saw their share of audience among listeners 6 and older jump an average of 72%, compared to the rest of the year. And the combined audience to the top AC holiday music stations across the top 10 markets has grown from 27 million weekly listeners (6 and older) in 2012 to 30 million in 2015, an 11% increase. 

Historically, Country’s AQH tends to be softest during the last few months of the year (including the Holiday “month") and the first few months of the New Year.

While the format can take a hit this time of the year, Holiday listening patterns also can offer an opportunity against a competitor – particularly when fighting over fewer tune-ins where “must hear” content can be a difference maker.

So decorate your station like Dan Patrick’s holiday set and “gift” listeners with your best content.

Then check your stocking.



Thanks to Nielsen's VP of Audience Jon Miller for the data and PPM trend chart.

Looking Back Five Years: How Country Has Fared Since the Boom

It’s getting close to the time when year-end lists or links will start appearing in our in boxes. Depending on your interests, some are great - hopefully you feel that way about A&O&B's Year End Music Review released each year during the first week of December!

But before we start opening (or not) those "Top (fill in the blank) of 2016" lists, here’s a look further back – five years back - at some ratings data for both radio in general and country radio specifically.

The idea is to see where we've come over the past five years and why. Spoiler alert: we've saved the best news for the end of the blog.

Special thanks to Nielsen’s VP of Audience Insights Jon Miller who supplied A&O&B with the data we used to create our charts and graphs and help zero in on some specifics.

It’s old news of course that overall, radio has lost AQH over the years. As the chart below shows across all formats in the broadest measure, 12+, radio (red bars) AQH is off roughly 7%, with 18-34 AQH off just over 13% and 25-54 AQH down nearly 14%.

Comparing Country’s AQH losses to radio's as a whole, Country's losses were deeper 12+ and 25-54, losing roughly 10% and 15% respectively of the format's AQH. Meanwhile, in what could pass for a “tallest pigmy” illustration, country fared better than radio overall with 18-34 AQH though the format's AQH was still off 7.6%.

Country’s five-year share trend showed a similar pattern in that 18-34 was the format's best performing cell, growing nearly a full share.

To further drill down into the demos, this chart shows country’s AQH composition change from spring 2011 to spring 2016.

Again, we can see the same pattern of 18-34 vs. 12+ and 25-54. However the Composition grid shows that the 18-34 driver is 18-24.

At first glance, the increase among 55-64s might raise an eyebrow. However consider that in 2011, 45-54s accounted for nearly 20% (19.7%) of Country's AQH, and that over the past five years, some of those strong AQH providers have aged into the 55-64 cell.

All this presents challenges for country and its 25-54 target.  The 18-24 gains to date have not been enough to offset the AQH drop among 35-44s or the ‘aging out’ of 2011’s largest AQH cell 45-54.

On the positive side however, Country's overall cume remains strong. Nielsen breaks Country and New Country out separately (Country is off slightly, New Country has nearly doubled), but the bottom line is that country's total cume is up more than 2.2-million over the past 5 years. 

Plus, as Nielsen has previously reported Country had the 3rd highest share 6+ and second highest 18-34 and 25-54 at the end of 2015.

Still, with cume up and AQH down TSL gets put under the microscope.

A&O&B counts 21 factors that can influence TSL of which music is just one -- albeit a very important one.

Interestingly the country currents from five years ago were particularly strong. In fact, our year-end research pegged 2011 as the strongest year for current music since we began tracking year-end song scores in 1998.

As in many current music formats, new music has cycles of greater and lesser strength. The softer the cycle, the greater the importance other key occasion-driving components take on.

If it’s been a while since you’ve evaluated - or better yet taken your listeners’ pulse on - your TSL drivers including station images, personalities, and individual music titles, it’s important to find a way to do so in 2017 – or sooner.

With two million more cume than 5 years ago, there are now better than 71 million reasons to make sure your on air product is the best it can be.

A&O&B strongly encourage local research. To that end we provide clients tools and expertise for online current and gold music testing plus our annual online perceptual “Roadmap.” Clients receive their local breakouts as well as national data. For more information on these and projects like listener panels and ratings analysis, or for thoughts on how to audit your station's TSL drivers, contact Mike@AandOandB.com or Becky@AandOandB.com for more information.

In a future blog we’ll look at how Classic Country data today compared to that of 5 years ago.

Again, a big thanks to Nielsen’s Jon Miller for providing A&O&B with this important data.

First January Nielsens Bring Holiday Hangover Relief

The first ratings of 2016 are rolling out and - at least on the first day - it’s “thank goodness!” for Country.

While a number of formats are no doubt looking forward to a ratings period that does not include Christmas music, probably no format is more excited to turn the page than country which lost more November-Holiday audience than any other major format.

Here’s how Nielsen trended the 6+ November-Holiday book change-in-share; this includes record 6+ and 18-34 shares for AC (12.9 and 11.5 respectively) as well as a 4-year tie for highest shares 25-54 (12.1).

For country, the first 6+ PPMs that were reported Tuesday (2/16/16) were like a double dose of aspirin and prickly pear extract.

15 of the 21 measured country stations were up (5 were flat and one HD2 channel was off). 

Country, while taking the biggest November/Holiday audience ‘hit,’ is also the major format that tends to ride its January increase the longest increasing shares from the first of the year well into the summer and, last year, to September.

As I posted in an earlier blog, a number of formats see post-holiday increases that begin with a January "build."

Certainly country has challenges ahead. However history suggests that the calendar isn't one of them.

Can I get an “Amen” from country and formats that show steady growth with the start of the new year?